I only ask because I want to know

Once allowance has been made not only for the IPCC’s reduction of the feedback sum f from 2.05 to 1.5 W m–2 K–1 and the application of Eq. (1) to the relationship between TS and FS but also for the probability that f is not strongly positive, for the possibility that a 50% increase in CO2 concentration is all that can occur before fossil-fuel exhaustion, for the IPCC’s estimate that only half of equilibrium sensitivity will occur within the century after the CO2 increase, and for the fact that the CO2 increase will not be complete until the end of this century, it is difficult, and arguably impossible, to maintain that Man can cause a dangerous warming of the planet by 2100.

Indeed, even one ignores all of the considerations in the above paragraph except the first, the IPCC’s implicit central estimate of global warming this century would amount to only 1.1 K, just within the arbitrary 2-K-since-1750 limit, and any remaining warming would come through so slowly as to be harmless. It is no longer legitimate – if ever it was – to maintain that there is any need to fear runaway warming.

Sourced through Scoop.it from: wattsupwiththat.com


The Liberals have dodged a fight at their annual love-in

The motion brought by the party’s regional and rural committee called on the Abbott government not to sign up to any binding agreements at the United Nations climate change summit in Paris later this year.

The motion called for a parliamentary inquiry to “examine the scientific evidence that underpins the man-made global warming theory and investigate the reasons for the failure of computer models, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and prominent individuals to predict, among other things, the pause in global warming this century”.

Sourced through Scoop.it from: www.smh.com.au

Centre for Intelligent and Networked Systems

Centre for Intelligent and Networked Systems (CINS) is focused on conducting research in the areas of Computational Intelligence, Pattern Recognition, Networks and their applications in ICT industry. Networks provide the mathematical underpinning for the formal analysis of networked behavior and Computational Intelligence including pattern recognition provides the techniques for individual behavior.

Sourced through Scoop.it from: sites.google.com

Bureau of Meteorology told to improve data handling, analysis

Graham Lloyd, The Australian, June 19, 2015

Better data handling and statistical methods and the use of pre-1910 temperature records would improve the Bureau of Meteorology’s national temperature data set ACORN-SAT, an ­independent review has found.

A technical advisory panel, brought forward following public concerns that the bureau’s homogenisation process was exaggerating a warming trend, said it was “generally satisfied” with BoM’s performance.

But it said there was “scope for improvements that can boost the transparency of the data set”.

Scientists who queried BoM’s management of the national temperature data said they had been vindicated by the report.

The review panel made five recommendations and said it was “not currently possible to determine whether the improvements recommended by the forum will result in an increased or decreased warming trend as reflected in the ACORN-SAT dataset”.

The independent review panel was recommended by a peer review of the Australian Climate Observations Reference Network — Surface Air Temperature, but it not acted upon until public concerns were raised.

BoM’s technical advisory forum said ACORN-SAT was a complex and well-maintained data set. Public submissions about BoM’s work “do not provide evidence or offer a justification for contesting the overall need for homogenisation and the scientific integrity of the bureau’s climate records.”

Nonetheless, the review report said it considered its recommendations for improving the bureau’s communications, statistical methods and data handling, and further regional analysis based on the pre-1910 data, would address the most important concerns.

David Stockwell, who raised concerns, said he was “very pleased with the recommendations”.

“They largely identify and address all of the concerns that I have had with the past BoM work,” Dr Stockwell said. “When implemented, it should lead to considerable improvements.

“The panel recommended strongly that the BoM communicate the limitations and it agreed that errors in the data need to be corrected and homogenisation is necessary, as I do, although it must be communicated clearly that the ACORN result is a relative index of change and not an observational series.”

The forum received 20 public submissions which questioned;

• The 1910 starting date (although some pre-1910 records are available) and its potential effect on reported climate trends;

• The treatment of claimed cyclical warming and cooling periods in the adjustment process and its effect on reported warming trends;

• The potential effects of site selection and the later inclusion of stations in warmer regions;

• The treatment of statistical uncertainty associated with both raw and homogenised data sets;

• The ability of individuals to replicate or verify the data set; and

• the justification for adjusting historic temperature records.

Bob Baldwin, the parliamentary secretary responsible for BoM, said the bureau would work to adopt the recommendations.

“We believe the forum’s recommendations for improving the bureau’s overall communications, statistical methods and data handling, and further regional analysis based on the pre-1910 data, will help address the main concerns surrounding the dataset,” he said.

Mr Baldwin said the report was an important part of ensuring the bureau continued to provide world-class information on the climate trends affecting Australia.

The review panel said its recommendations predominately addressed two key aspects of ACORN-SAT.

They were: to improve the clarity and accessibility of information provided, in particular explaining the uncertainty inherent to both raw and homogenised datasets; and refining some data-handling and statistical methods through appropriate statistical standardisation procedures, sensitivity analysis and alternative data filling approaches.

Published measurements of climate sensitivity declining

climate_sensitivity  High res PDF version

The climate sensitivity due to CO2 is expressed as the temperature change in °C associated with a doubling of the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) refers to the equilibrium change in global mean near-surface air temperature that would result from a sustained doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.  The transient climate response (TCR) is defined as the average temperature response over a twenty-year period centered at CO2 doubling in a transient simulation with CO2 increasing at 1% per year. The transient response is lower than the equilibrium sensitivity, due to the “inertia” of ocean heat uptake.

Scientists made numerous estimates of climate sensitivity over the last few decades and have yet to determine the correct value.  The figure shows the change in published climate sensitivity measurements over the past 15 years (from here).  The ECS and TCR estimates have both declined in the last 15 years, with the ECS declining from 6C to less than 2C.  While one cannot extrapolate from past results, it is likely that the true figure is below 2C, and may continue to decline.  Based on this historic pattern we should reject the studies that falsely exaggerated the climate sensitivity in the past and remember that global warming is not the most serious issue facing the world today.