Phase Plots of Global Temperature after Eruptions

Here are a few more phase plots of global temperature after the impulse of stratosphere-reaching eruptions, Mt Agung, Mt Chichon and Mt Pinatubo in 1963, 1982 and 1991 respectively. The impulses are cooling of course, due to the shielding of short-wave solar radiation by stratospheric aerosols. The tendency of the global temperature dynamic to oscillate around a mean is clear.

These patterns were then disrupted by large El Ninos.

The axes of the phase space are chosen to represent abstract position and momentum (in this case temperature and temperature changes). Position and momentum in a conserved system correspond to potential and kinetic energy. The appearance of a circle or a spiral is evidence of a system that conserves energy by transferring between potential (radiative imbalance in this case) and kinetic (mass transfer, convection?) so that the sum remains constant.


0 thoughts on “Phase Plots of Global Temperature after Eruptions

  1. Very interesting David
    Wonder if there is any relationship between the period and ocean (or atmospheric) oscillations.  e.g. you found the Pi/2 (90 deg) phase lag between solar cycle and the driven SST.
    Here you are tracking an “impact” or pulse impact that could excite a natural resonance. Suggest looking at the frequency spectra and seeing what the principle frequencies correlate to.

    e.g. it looks to be about 5-6 years. This could be similar to the average ENSO period. e.g. See

    Kirtman, Ben P., 1997: Oceanic Rossby Wave Dynamics and the ENSO Period in a Coupled Model. J. Climate, 10, 1690–1704.

    doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(1997)0102.0.CO;2

    Tropical ocean wave dynamics associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycle in a coupled model are examined. . . . In a control simulation, where the structure of the wind stress anomaly
    is determined from observations, the model produces a regular 5-yr
    oscillation. . . .
    The second set of sensitivity experiments was designed to examine how
    these off-equatorial Rossby waves influence the ENSO cycle. Without the
    effects of the off-equatorial Rossby waves at the western boundary, the
    model produces a 2-yr oscillation regardless of the meridional structure
    of the wind stress anomaly.

    The ENSO oscillations are about 1/4 of the solar cycles. Could the solar cycles excite and synchronize the ENSO events?
    See Tallbloke The timing of El Nino in relation to the solar cycle

    I have said that El Nino tends to start occurring on the declining side
    of the cycle, the big ones at or just after solar minimum.

    Those in turn may be excited by barycenter motion. See Ed Fix’s solar cycle model. based on the barycenter. cf Tallbloke’s posts.

    Might this be observable over the 60 year Pacific Decadal Oscillation? See Spencer:
    The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO): Key to the Global Warming Debate?

    You may find similar natural oscillations excited by Forbush events which impact clouds in about 6 days. See Shaviv

    Is the causal link between cosmic rays and cloud cover really dead??

    For high resolution Forbush monitoring see: The Pierre Auger Observatory scaler mode for the study of solar activity modulation of galactic cosmic rays

    available data are presented together with an analysis focused on the observation of Forbush decreases, where a strong correlation with neutron monitor data is found.

    See especially Fig. 5.

    Note also solar eclipse’s as another external impact that may be useful in tracking atmospheric oscillations and distinguishing causes vs consequences.

    Your Del T vs T analysis may be very useful to identify and confirm such atmospheric and oceanic oscillations.

    • Yes.  The data seem to suggest a natural resonance around 4 years and ENSO is a manifestation of off-resonant forcing (luckily!).  I have a theory that the 1998 super-El Nino was caused by excitation near the resonant frequency, as the two previous ultra-Plinian eruptions occurred coincidentally at the peak of solar cycle, effectively cutting the period of forcing in half over 22 years, causing energy buildup.

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