GBR not endangered

Any climate sceptic who takes on a debate in Australia encounters the GBR argument: even if the climate isn’t warming we are going to lose The Reef! This study finds a far more nuanced situation, with no catastrophe in progress.

In conclusion, precise estimates of coral cover from a dedicated monitoring program revealed that system-wide coral cover changed very little on the GBR between 1995 and 2009. Although coral cover averaged 29% across the whole GBR, previous studies indicate that coral cover was higher prior to when our surveys began. Nonetheless, there appears to be no evidence of continued system-wide decline since 1995. During this 16 year period, storms and A. planci predation had the largest impact on coral cover, especially at subregional scales (10–100 km), in terms of reefs affected, summed coral lost at all reefs, and amount of decline at individual reefs. The impact of bleaching and coral disease, to date, was not severe on our sites. There are a number of factors however, that suggest that the current disturbance regime may not be sustainable. One inshore reef, for example, had a phase shift from hard coral to macroalgae, similar to that which has occurred at much larger scales in the Carribbean [63]. Corals with less capacity for growth and recruitment than Acroporidae had widespread negative trends. However, the abundance of Acroporidae species and relatively low anthropogenic agents of disturbance appears to place the GBR in a healthier state than the global average.


0 thoughts on “GBR not endangered

    • Is anyone able to out Nick, using allowable blog rules? We trumped him on CA with his outlandish claims that the Information Commissioner did little damage to UEA etc. However he is well-informed and uses logic well. I suspect a conglomerate of people, but could be wrong, because of his speed of discovery of obscure points from legal, international, weather, obscure paper, etc diverse sources. If he is a person, I’d enjoy meeting him.

      The Great Barrier Reef is lovely to behold. As a former North Queenslander, I did glimpse the outer Reef by snorkel and saw several island reefs, such as Green Island Observatory (1965), Brampton Is (1949) while they were relatively unharmed by stirring of fine sediment by boats etc. I’d be rather upset if reefs were damaged, so I don’t go there any more.

      As a on-expert, I cannot work out how a slight change in temperature (if real) or a slight change in ocean level(dwarfed by large daily tidal moves). Sure some climate conditions might affect disease and predators, but the Reef has been there for a very long time despite such influences. Too often, one hears claims of damage unsupported by mechanisms related to change of climate. Nice to see a paper that at least reports no change of viable area over 15 years.

      • Ah yes, Geoff, I’m everywhere!

        But when I’m not, I think we actually live in the same city.

      • Geoff,

        take your computer to a security expert. Nick may be a program running on it!!

        Barring that, being in the same city, maybe y’all can get together for a drink.

        Someone with a cool head needs to get the idea into that closed community that they need to back off and redo their work before trying to push anymore of their alarmist BS on the public. If things continue to get worse a small community like that would be an ideal scapegoat for the politicians to divert anger from themselves. Hitler used the Jews, Gypsies, Homosexuals… If the sun really does cause a serious cooling, guess who will be the scapegoat? The guys who were blaming it all on CO2 and wasting our time and resources. Obie and the rest would use the Climate Community in a second if they think it will divert attention from their own self serving promotion of alarmism!! What a witch hunt that would be.

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