Niche Modeling 2010 Roundup and Goodbye

Seth Godin, a blogger I admire greatly, suggests we publish a list of accomplishments for the year (What did you ship in 2010?).

  • Peer-reviewed publication demonstrating that policy-makers are being misled by inadequate climate models.
  • Hosted a venue for the “Watts Up With the Climate” Tour of Australia.
  • Gave four public lectures on climate skepticism, arguing that the forecasts of prominent climate modelers are not reliable.
  • Contributed to two articles on the ABC community blog site Unleashed.
  • Started a school chess club
  • Reviewed a number of manuscripts
  • Set up the The Climate Sceptics Party web site, supporting their candidates in the general election.

I would like to express my gratitude to everyone who helped as it could not have been done by me alone. I hope that in some small way a measure of common sense has been brought into the climate change controversy.

My greatest achievement in my mind was preparation of a draft of a paper on a new climate modeling approach that has been circulated to selected climate scientists. Based on a control-systems methodology and called “Accumulative model of climate systems” some highlights are:

  • A mechanism for amplification of weak solar forcing by accumulation in the ocean, explaining solar variation from 1 million to annual time scales;
  • A model showing that even if global warming since 1970 was caused by increasing greenhouse gasses (and not UHI eg.), greenhouse gasses cannot present a significant long-term warming problem, due to poor ocean-atmosphere coupling;
  • A model showing how PDO/AMO cycles may be driven by random ENSO variations.

As I would like to spend considerable time this year getting this work published, I am going to discontinue posting comments on topical events on this blog, at least until this paper is shipped.

Since there is so much control-systems background material to go through in order to understand the modeling framework, I have a mind to expand it into a book. In that case I will post draft chapters on this blog as they are done.

All the best for 2011! I’ll be back!


0 thoughts on “Niche Modeling 2010 Roundup and Goodbye

  1. congratulations on your 2010 effort.
    I’ll have a go as well:
    an open letter to Aust Parliamentarians reproduced
    an article written in conjunction with John O’Sullivan reproduced
    innumerable published comments to various websites which you can find just by googling my name
    innumerable e mails to Politicians about AGW and the proposed methods of charging for CO2 emissions
    Anyway all the best for the New Year and look forward to seeing the result of your 2011 project

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