CSIRO Mk3 Model Performance

On the comparisons of Climate Models from Douglass et al here is a table showing how well(?) the CSIRO Mark 3 model performed.

In layers near 5 km, the modelled trend is 100 to 300% higher than observed, and, above 8 km, modelled and observed trends have opposite signs.

The raw data are from http://www.pas.rochester.edu/~douglass/papers/Published%20JOC1651.pdf (2007).

Table II. (a). Temperature trends for 22 CGCM Models with 20CEN forcing. The numbered models are fully identified in Table II(b).

Pressure (hPa)–>Surface 1000 925 850 700 600 500 400 300 250 200 150 100 Model Sims.∗ Trends (milli °C/decade)

1 9 128 303 121 177 161 172 190 216 247 263 268 243 40
2 5 125 1507 113 112 123 126 138 148 140 105 2 −114 −161
3 5 311 318 336 346 376 422 484 596 672 673 642 594 253
4 5 95 92 99 99 131 179 158 184 212 224 182 169 −3
5 5 210 302 224 215 249 264 293 343 391 408 400 319
6 4 119 118 148 175 189 214 238 283 365 406 425 393 −33
7 4 112 460 107 123 122 130 155 183 213 228 225 211 0
8 3 86 62 57 58 82 95 108 134 160 163 155 137 100
9 3 142 143 148 150 149 162 200 234 273 284 282 258 163
10 3 189 114 200 210 225 238 269 316 345 348 347 308 53
11 3 244 403 270 278 309 331 377 449 503 481 461 405 75
12 3 80 173 114 115 102 98 124 150 161 164 166 142 4
13 2 162 155 170∗∗ 182 225 218 221 282 352 360 340 277 −39
14 2 171 293 190 197 252 245 268 328 376 367 326 278 69
15 2 163 213 174 181 199 204 226 271 307 299 255 166 53
16 2 119 128 124 140 151 176 197 228 271 289 306 260 120
17 2 219 −1268 199 223 259 283 321 373 427 454 479 465 280
18 1 117 117 126 148 163 159 180 207 227 225 203 200 16
19 1 230 220 267 283 313 346 410 506 561 554 526 521 244
20 1 191 151 176 194 212 237 254 304 387 410 400 367 314
21 1 191 328 241 222 193 187 215 255 300 316 327 304 90
22 1 28 24 46 73 27 −26 −26 −1 20 24 32 −1 −136

Total simulations: 67

Average 156 198 166 177 191 203 227 272 314 320 307 268 78
Std. Dev. (σ) 64 443 72 70 82 96 109 131 148 149 154 160 124
∗ ‘Sims.’ refers to the number of simulations over which averages
CSIRO are number 15, with results compared to average of 67 runs on the line below

CSIRO 163 213 174 181 199 204 226 271 307 299 255 166 53
AVERAGE 156 198 166 177 191 203 227 272 314 320 307 268 78
Std. Dev. 64 443 72 70 82 96 109 131 148 149 154 160 124

h/t Geoff Sherrington

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