Sceptics Tour Update

Having just returned from my leg of the tour, I have been offline for awhile, but expect to catch up this week. Here is my powerpoint presentation “Tweeter and the Monkey M(e)an — Negating Climate Change Policy” (4.3MB).

The title comes from a song by the Traveling Wilburys. The message is that without proper validation, climate models are no more credible than Tweets, and from my (and others’) validation testing, the model forecasts are not fit-for-forecasting, showing no more accuracy than the “Monkey Mean” — the average temperature and rainfall. I critique CSIRO and BoM reports and conclude with an example of how to make rational business decisions under climate forecast uncertainty.

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0 thoughts on “Sceptics Tour Update

  1. Having heard the common refrain that “models are our only tool” the information that the current models are, in fact, worse than nothing in regard to important issues is vital. Very good presentation, David. One question, what is the difference between MSE and NSE?

      1. I managed to find the information as soon as David gave the name for the abbreviation. Before that I had been working on the assumption that it was some variation of the MSE, Mean Squared Error, because of the similar letters.

        It’s interesting that originally the authors developed it for discharge models, but it clearly can be applied more generally and usefully. I think I can see where it would be a very useful tool for assessing model “skill”.

  2. Having heard the common refrain that “models are our only tool” the information that the current models are, in fact, worse than nothing in regard to important issues is vital. Very good presentation, David. One question, what is the difference between MSE and NSE?

  3. I managed to find the information as soon as David gave the name for the abbreviation. Before that I had been working on the assumption that it was some variation of the MSE, Mean Squared Error, because of the similar letters.It's interesting that originally the authors developed it for discharge models, but it clearly can be applied more generally and usefully. I think I can see where it would be a very useful tool for assessing model “skill”.

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