Watts’ Tour of Australia is to be announced shortly. He will be visiting a number of major and many minor regional centres, accompanied by David Archibald. I will be speaking at Newcastle, Noosa and Emerald (Q).
I have decided to present as much local context as much as possible, structured around a review of the CSIRO State of the Climate Report. This report implies that climate changes in Australia are a result of human emissions of greenhouse gases. I think I will critique this with reviews from over the years, including the abysmal performance of climate models in the Drought Exceptional Circumstance Report (DECR), due to be published in E&E in July.
In the process of preparing my talk, I am running across many interesting studies on the causes of regional climate changes. One is the ‘day of the week effect’, also mentioned in the AR4 chapter 188.8.131.52 Urban Heat Islands and Land Use Effects. This is the chapter that contains one of the most egregious of IPCC errors, the fabrication of a rebuttal to Ross McKitrick.
Hence, the correlation of warming with industrial and socio-economic development ceases to be statistically significant. [No reference supplied]
Forster and Solomon (2003) found a distinctive â€˜weekend effectâ€™ at stations examined in the USA, Japan, Mexico and China in temperature, precipitation and sunlight hours, and strongly suggest an anthropogenic effect on climate, likely through changes in pollution and aerosols.
In general, precipitation increases on the weekends, and temperature and sunlight hours decrease. I thought it was my imagination when I lived in Canberra, Australia, and it always seemed to rain on the weekends. Canberra has a fairly constant rainfall year-round, dominated by frontal systems, and they seemed to me to be synchronised with the weekends.
Climate changes over the last 50 years could well be due to effects other than human emissions of greenhouse gasses, and so give no clue to the future trajectory of climate. The State of the Climate report is not peer-reviewed literature, so I hope to do a service by showing that attribution of regional climate effects to human emissions are based more in politics than science.