Vindication

A rash of stunning turnarounds have vindicated years of effort by climate sceptics. The day after ClimateGate broke I made three predictions:

. Disband the entire Federal Department of Climate Change along with all the individual State Departments of Climate Change.

. Vote down the Emissions Trading Scheme Legislation.

. Cancel Copenhagen.

Australia’s Department of Climate Change has been ‘watered down’ to become the Department of Climate Change, Energy Efficiency and Water. The ETS was voted down, and Copenhagen was such a net negative they are probably sorry they didn’t cancel it.

In another successful prediction, the end of drought in Australia came from a massive upswing in rainfall in 2010. This was done using the EMD algorithm and the assumption of stationarity of rainfall: i.e. long-term oscillations with zero trend, in contrast to a non-stationary drying trend as assumed by CSIRO climate models.

In another stunning vindication of Steve McIntyre, the Met Dept are proposing to take over global temperature data from the CRU. Steve has of course been railing for years about the sloppy, good old boys science in Jones’ department, and clearly the professionals agree with his assessment. Gladly the proposal includes a transparent verification process.

In efforts that are long overdue, Lucia reports that various people are attempting to verify the absence of bias in the CRU surface dataset in various ways. Whatever the result, this can only be a good thing, and I hope it becomes a habit.

Advertisements

0 thoughts on “Vindication

  1. According to Pinker, surface solar irradiance increased by 0.16 W/m^2/year over the 18 year period 1983 – 2001 or 2.88 W/m^2 over the entire period. This was a period of claimed significant global warming.This change in surface solar irradiance over 1983 – 2001 is almost exactly 1.2% of the mean total surface solar irradiance of recent decades of 238.9 W/m^2 (K, T & F, 2009).According to NASA, mean global cloud cover declined from about 0.677 (67.7%) in 1983 to about 0.644 (64.4%) in 2001 or a decline of 0.033 (3.3%). The 27 year mean global cloud cover 1983 – 2008 is about 0.664 (66.4%) (NASA)The average Bond Albedo (A) of recent decades has been almost exactly 0.300, hence 1 – A = 0.700It is possible to estimate the relationship between albedo and total cloud cover about the average global cloud cover and it is described by the simple relationship:Albedo (A) = 0.250C + 0.134 where C = cloud cover. The 0.134 term presumably represents the surface SW reflection.For example; A = 0.300 = 0.25 x 0.664 + 0.134This means that in 1983; A = 0.25 x 0.677 + 0.134 = 0.303andin 2001; A = 0.25 x 0.644 + 0.134 = 0.295Thus in 1983; 1 – A = 1 – 0.303 = 0.697and in 2001; 1 – A = 1 – 0.295 = 0.705Therefore, between 1983 and 2001, the known reduction in the Earth’s albedo A as measured by NASA would have increased solar irradiance by 200 x [(0.705 – 0.697)/(0.705 + 0.695)]% = 200 x (0.008/1.402)% = 1.1%This estimate of 1.1% increase in solar irradiance from cloud cover reduction over the 18 year period 1983 – 2001 is very close to the 1.2% increase in solar irradiance measured by Pinker for the same period.Within the precision of the available data and this exercise, it may therefore be concluded that it is highly likely that Pinker’s finding was due to an almost exactly functionally equivalent decrease in Earth’s Bond albedo over the same period resulting from cloud cover reduction.

  2. According to Pinker, surface solar irradiance increased by 0.16 W/m^2/year over the 18 year period 1983 – 2001 or 2.88 W/m^2 over the entire period. This was a period of claimed significant global warming.

    This change in surface solar irradiance over 1983 – 2001 is almost exactly 1.2% of the mean total surface solar irradiance of recent decades of 238.9 W/m^2 (K, T & F, 2009).

    According to NASA, mean global cloud cover declined from about 0.677 (67.7%) in 1983 to about 0.644 (64.4%) in 2001 or a decline of 0.033 (3.3%). The 27 year mean global cloud cover 1983 – 2008 is about 0.664 (66.4%) (NASA)

    The average Bond Albedo (A) of recent decades has been almost exactly 0.300, hence 1 – A = 0.700

    It is possible to estimate the relationship between albedo and total cloud cover about the average global cloud cover and it is described by the simple relationship:

    Albedo (A) = 0.250C + 0.134 where C = cloud cover. The 0.134 term presumably represents the surface SW reflection.

    For example; A = 0.300 = 0.25 x 0.664 + 0.134

    This means that in 1983; A = 0.25 x 0.677 + 0.134 = 0.303

    and

    in 2001; A = 0.25 x 0.644 + 0.134 = 0.295

    Thus in 1983; 1 – A = 1 – 0.303 = 0.697

    and in 2001; 1 – A = 1 – 0.295 = 0.705

    Therefore, between 1983 and 2001, the known reduction in the Earth’s albedo A as measured by NASA would have increased solar irradiance by 200 x [(0.705 – 0.697)/(0.705 + 0.695)]% = 200 x (0.008/1.402)% = 1.1%

    This estimate of 1.1% increase in solar irradiance from cloud cover reduction over the 18 year period 1983 – 2001 is very close to the 1.2% increase in solar irradiance measured by Pinker for the same period.

    Within the precision of the available data and this exercise, it may therefore be concluded that it is highly likely that Pinker’s finding was due to an almost exactly functionally equivalent decrease in Earth’s Bond albedo over the same period resulting from cloud cover reduction.

  3. “Here elaborates the matter not only extensively but also detailly .I support the
    write’s unique point.It is useful and benefit to your daily life.You can air jordan 20 go those
    sits to know more relate things.They are strongly recommended by friends.Personally

  4. “Here elaborates the matter not only extensively but also detailly .I support the write's unique point.It is useful and benefit to your daily life.You can air jordan 20 go those sits to know more relate things.They are strongly recommended by friends.Personally

  5. Pingback: witryna www

  6. Pingback: zobacz tutaj

  7. Pingback: zobacz oferte

  8. Pingback: strona firmy

  9. Pingback: gdy miec swietne cialo

  10. Pingback: zobacz

  11. Pingback: sklepy internetowe

  12. Pingback: zobacz tutaj

  13. Pingback: polecam

  14. Pingback: seo katalog

  15. Pingback: kliknij tutaj

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s