More drought-related 'proof' of AGW

A transcript of an interview with Tas van Ommen on the link between Antarctic excess and West Australian deficits of precipitation displays questionable proof of anthropogenic global warming.

A natural circulation pattern surrounding Antarctica has three lobes because of the three continents and three ocean basins in the Southern Hemisphere. Tas claims in the past 30 to 40 years the strength of that three-lobe pattern has increased, bringing moisture and warmth into Antarctica and dry air back up to Western Australia.

He claims that a natural explanation has a 1:1000 probability.

Well, it is a real smoking gun I guess. It could be that we have just happened to find something that is really one in actual fact, thousands flukey event to get such a large snowfall. The more natural interpretation is that there is something been going on in the last 30 to 40 years and we know what that something is. It is the human impact on the atmosphere.

This was reported as ‘proof of climate change‘. But he admits it is an assumption.

TAS VAN OMMEN: The basic conclusion is that if this is being driven by human impact then you would expect it to continue but as climate change continues to change, the current situation changes too.

The evidence that the putative change in circulation is due to AGW, and not due to natural variation, comes from ‘some’ climate models.

“This pattern has strengthened in the past 30 years and some of the computer models that reproduce this are showing that it looks like it has happened because of greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide – and also ozone (being depleted).

“We wouldn’t claim on the strength of this that it is proven in black and white, but it’s another piece of evidence.

One can always find some model to confirm an hypothesis.

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0 thoughts on “More drought-related 'proof' of AGW

  1. Jones, J. M. and M. Widmann, 2004. Early peak in Antarctic oscillation index. Nature, 432, 290–291.Find that the Antarctic Oscillation-the pattern in question-has change in the last thirty to forty years, but is only where it was in the late fifties to early sixties.Unnatural eh?

  2. Jones, J. M. and M. Widmann, 2004. Early peak in Antarctic oscillation index. Nature, 432, 290–291.

    Find that the Antarctic Oscillation-the pattern in question-has change in the last thirty to forty years, but is only where it was in the late fifties to early sixties.

    Unnatural eh?

    • Nice find Andrew. See Bolts post.

      http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/how_to_blame_humans_for_anything

      “Here we reconstruct the austral summer (December–January) Antarctic oscillation index from sea-level pressure measurements over the twentieth century5 and find that large positive values, and positive trends of a similar magnitude to those of past decades, also occurred around 1960, and that strong negative trends occurred afterwards. This positive Antarctic oscillation index and large positive trend during a period before ozone-depleting chemicals were released into the atmosphere and before marked anthropogenic warming, together with the later negative trend, indicate that natural forcing factors or internal mechanisms in the climate system must also strongly influence the state of the Antarctic oscillation.”

  3. Nice find Andrew. See Bolts post. http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/i…“Here we reconstruct the austral summer (December–January) Antarctic oscillation index from sea-level pressure measurements over the twentieth century5 and find that large positive values, and positive trends of a similar magnitude to those of past decades, also occurred around 1960, and that strong negative trends occurred afterwards. This positive Antarctic oscillation index and large positive trend during a period before ozone-depleting chemicals were released into the atmosphere and before marked anthropogenic warming, together with the later negative trend, indicate that natural forcing factors or internal mechanisms in the climate system must also strongly influence the state of the Antarctic oscillation.”

  4. He says the same things in the Synder Times article:”We wouldn't claim on the strength of this that it is proven in black and white, but it's another piece of evidence.” “This is strong evidence that human climate change does make a contribution to the West Australian drought.”The only probllem with the article is the misleading headline. Bad bad copy editor. The word proof does not appear in the next. Apparently you did read the Sydney article.

  5. He says the same things in the Synder Times article:

    “We wouldn’t claim on the strength of this that it is proven in black and white, but it’s another piece of evidence.”

    “This is strong evidence that human climate change does make a contribution to the West Australian drought.”

    The only probllem with the article is the misleading headline. Bad bad copy editor. The word proof does not appear in the next. Apparently you did read the Sydney article.

  6. He says the same things in the Synder Times article:”We wouldn't claim on the strength of this that it is proven in black and white, but it's another piece of evidence.” “This is strong evidence that human climate change does make a contribution to the West Australian drought.”The only probllem with the article is the misleading headline. Bad bad copy editor. The word proof does not appear in the next. Apparently you did read the Sydney article.

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