Are there any predictions of global warming that have proven true? WUWT has a list of spectacular failures, and is calling on readers to add more. All of the successful ‘predictions’ I have seen have been ex post facto — after the fact.
The string of failed AGW predictions points to the “expert problem” as described by Nassim Taleb in economics. Substitute Mr Takatoshi for Penny Wong, and Obama for Rudd, and you have the Australian AGW situation.
I told the audience that the next time someone from the IMF shows you projections for some dates in the future, to show us what they PROJECTED for 2008 and 2009 in 2004, 2005, â€¦, and 2007. They would then verify that Mr. Takatoshi and his colleagues provide a prime illustration to the â€œexpert problemâ€: they serve as experts while offering the scientific reliability of astrologers. Anyone relying on them is a turkey.
This allowed me to show the urgency of my idea of robustness. We cannot get rid of charlatans. My point is that we need to build a society robust to charlatanism and expert-error, one in which Mr. Takatoshi and his staff can be as incompetent as they want without endangering the general public. We need less reliance on these people and the Obama administration has been making us more dependent on the â€œexpert problemâ€.
Climate experts show a stunning lack of concern with evidence and model validation. The solution is to only attend to methods exposed to professional engineering standards.