Torok and Nicholls Adjusted Network

Digging deeper into the Australian Temperature Adjustments, below are data from 224 stations in the Torok and Nicholls network. It looks like most of the increase in Australian temperature in the last 150 years is due to a step-like increase in the mean annual minimum temperature since 1975!

CA examined the sometimes considerable adjustments of individual stations here and here. Steve also plotted up the raw station data. I don’t know how he did the plots for ‘before adjustment’ as all the data seems to be ‘post adjustment’ by Torok.

Here I use a differenced normalization method described previously to account for the differences in mean temperature at each station, without averaging over areas. Its not exactly the same, but it produces a similar trend result, as shown in the last figure below.

The Torok network contains the mean annual maximum and minimum temperatures of 224 stations, and these are plotted below with the ‘official’ BoM mean temperature (blue) of high quality network of 103 stations. While the minimum and mean temperatures are clearly increasing, the maximum temperature has not increased at all.

fig2

This has no doubt been observed before, but it raises some very interesting physical issues (ie temperature increase is self-limiting). Torok states that:

Maximum and minimum temperatures have increased since about 1950, with minimum temperatures increasing faster than the maximum temperatures.

However, its not clear from this graph that maximum temperatures have increased significantly since 1950. The graphs above have gone back to 1910 only so as to more closely resemble the BoM graphs. When all the data is plotted back to 1850, mean annual maximum temperatures look totally flat.

fig3

Moreover, the increase in minimum temperatures seems isolated to the period after 1975, associated with the change known as the Great Pacific Climate Shift.

Torok and Nicholls prepared this dataset from daily station maximums and minimums as follows.

A high-quality historical surface air temperature data set, for mean annual temperatures, has been prepared for Australia by adjusting data for inhomogeneities caused by station relocations, changes in exposure and other discontinuities.

I am reminded of this paper: MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE GLOBE: AN UPDATE THROUGH 2004 by Russell S. Vose*, David R. Easterling, and Byron Gleason showing a sharp increase in maximum temperatures globally, which does not seem to be apparent in the Australian data. More arguments for a comprehensive and independent audit of the global data sets?

The next step would be to audit the daily station data in this directory. Access seems to be blocked though.

Below is a comparison of the official BoM mean temperatures, and the result of my differenced normalization procedure on the 103 high quality stations (obtained from CA here), just to show that the simple method of normalization does produce similar trends as the official version, even if the details differ.

fig1

Oh and here is the script.R. You need to download the Torok files first, and uncomment sections as noted, as it takes awhile to run.

References:

Torok, S. and Nicholls, N., 1996. An historical temperature record for Australia. Aust. Met. Mag. 45, 251-260.

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0 thoughts on “Torok and Nicholls Adjusted Network

      • David,

        I go up one directory level and there are the Annual, where you are, and a Daily. I can open Daily and see Analysis and QC. I can also download from these directories.

        Is this what you are trying to access??

      • Can you download a daily station from analysis or qc directories? I
        will have another look shortly, by the ftp link kept dropping out for
        me.

      • Already downloaded everything under Daily. Is there somewhere I can drop it or..?

        I did have a number of hangs where I needed to redownload single files.

      • Pretty funny but I’ve done the same thing.

        Everything under daily including the text files tared and zipped comes to 21714kb.

        I expect you have access to my email address if you want another copy.

      • It’s been a long time, but, I think I could figure out how to do an Anonymous put again. Where should I “put” it??

  1. Following the paper trail for Australia, we have this set of 224 stations from T & N and they are indexed by Australia Station number. They need to have the station name and (perhaps) lats and longs put next to them. Has anyone done this yet, because if not, I shall do it and ask David about hosting it.Also, I have done the reverse exercise, putting Aust station numbers next to the names given in Jones et al 1990, the paper that looked at UHI and has about 50 stations from Eastern Australia with annual Tmax and Tmin 1930-1988. I have also reformatted the data under Excel so that it can be more easily used. Anyone want it?There is also a smaller subset starting with Warwick Hughes data from the early 1990s where I have formatted inclusion of BOM online, KNMI, Giss homogenised etc, so that one can follow the sequence of adjustments. It's not quite finished – it's a formidable bit of work – so if anyone is doing likewise please let me know so that effort is not duplicated.The aim is to look at as many datasets as possible, put them in a similar format, look for regularities and irregularities and reverse engineer back to the difficult-to-get raw data.If anyone has any Aust temp data considered to be raw, that is, before any published adjustments were made, I'd be most interested to share it. Geoff.

  2. David,I go up one directory level and there are the Annual, where you are, and a Daily. I can open Daily and see Analysis and QC. I can also download from these directories.Is this what you are trying to access??

  3. Following the paper trail for Australia, we have this set of 224 stations from T & N and they are indexed by Australia Station number. They need to have the station name and (perhaps) lats and longs put next to them. Has anyone done this yet, because if not, I shall do it and ask David about hosting it.

    Also, I have done the reverse exercise, putting Aust station numbers next to the names given in Jones et al 1990, the paper that looked at UHI and has about 50 stations from Eastern Australia with annual Tmax and Tmin 1930-1988. I have also reformatted the data under Excel so that it can be more easily used. Anyone want it?

    There is also a smaller subset starting with Warwick Hughes data from the early 1990s where I have formatted inclusion of BOM online, KNMI, Giss homogenised etc, so that one can follow the sequence of adjustments. It’s not quite finished – it’s a formidable bit of work – so if anyone is doing likewise please let me know so that effort is not duplicated.

    The aim is to look at as many datasets as possible, put them in a similar format, look for regularities and irregularities and reverse engineer back to the difficult-to-get raw data.

    If anyone has any Aust temp data considered to be raw, that is, before any published adjustments were made, I’d be most interested to share it. Geoff.

  4. Can you download a daily station from analysis or qc directories? Iwill have another look shortly, by the ftp link kept dropping out forme.

  5. Already downloaded everything under Daily. Is there somewhere I can drop it or..?I did have a number of hangs where I needed to redownload single files.

  6. Pretty funny but I've done the same thing.Everything under daily including the text files tared and zipped comes to 21714kb.I expect you have access to my email address if you want another copy.

  7. Following the paper trail for Australia, we have this set of 224 stations from T & N and they are indexed by Australia Station number. They need to have the station name and (perhaps) lats and longs put next to them. Has anyone done this yet, because if not, I shall do it and ask David about hosting it.Also, I have done the reverse exercise, putting Aust station numbers next to the names given in Jones et al 1990, the paper that looked at UHI and has about 50 stations from Eastern Australia with annual Tmax and Tmin 1930-1988. I have also reformatted the data under Excel so that it can be more easily used. Anyone want it?There is also a smaller subset starting with Warwick Hughes data from the early 1990s where I have formatted inclusion of BOM online, KNMI, Giss homogenised etc, so that one can follow the sequence of adjustments. It's not quite finished – it's a formidable bit of work – so if anyone is doing likewise please let me know so that effort is not duplicated.The aim is to look at as many datasets as possible, put them in a similar format, look for regularities and irregularities and reverse engineer back to the difficult-to-get raw data.If anyone has any Aust temp data considered to be raw, that is, before any published adjustments were made, I'd be most interested to share it. Geoff.

  8. David,I go up one directory level and there are the Annual, where you are, and a Daily. I can open Daily and see Analysis and QC. I can also download from these directories.Is this what you are trying to access??

  9. Can you download a daily station from analysis or qc directories? Iwill have another look shortly, by the ftp link kept dropping out forme.

  10. Already downloaded everything under Daily. Is there somewhere I can drop it or..?I did have a number of hangs where I needed to redownload single files.

  11. Pretty funny but I've done the same thing.Everything under daily including the text files tared and zipped comes to 21714kb.I expect you have access to my email address if you want another copy.

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