From the BoM website:
Summary: Mixed El NiÃ±o indicators as development slows
The El NiÃ±o pattern across the Pacific has not intensified during the past fortnight. Furthermore, the coupling between the ocean and atmosphere which amplifies and maintains El NiÃ±o events has so far failed to eventuate. The neutral SOI and sub-surface cooling are evidence of this.
However, the Trade Winds are weakening over a broad area and this may promote renewed warming. In addition, leading climate models continue to predict further development of the El NiÃ±o, although not as emphatically as a month or two back. Therefore, the odds remain strongly in favour of 2009 being recognised as an El NiÃ±o year.
Elsewhere, “Opps. I lied.“