Here is the abstract for our comment submitted to Geophysical Research Letters today. Bob Tisdale is acknowledged as the source of the idea in the first paragraph. Lets see how it goes. If you would like a copy, contact me via the form above.
Update: Now available from arXiv
Comment on “Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature” by J. D. McLean, C. R. de Freitas, and R. M. Carter
David R.B. Stockwell and Anthony Cox
We demonstrate an alternative correlation between the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global temperature variation to that shown by McLean et al. . We show 52% of the variation in RATPAC-A tropospheric temperature (and 59% of HadCRUT3) is explained by a novel cumulative Southern Oscillation Index (cSOI) term in a simple linear regression model and 65% of RATPAC-A variation (67% of HadCRUT3) when volcanic and solar effect terms are included. We review evidence from physical and statistical research in support of the hypothesis that accumulation of the effects of ENSO can produce natural multi-decadal warming trends. Although it is not possible to reliably determine the relative contribution of anthropogenic forcing and SOI accumulation from multiple regression models due to collinearity, these results suggest a residual accumulation of around 5 Â± 1% and up to 9 Â± 2% of ENSO-events has contributed to the global temperature trend.