SSA decomposition of HadCRU

Applying the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) R package to the global temperature record is potentially insightful. SSA is a type of principal components analysis for time series data, recovering orthogonal components, EOF’s, of different period. Just the ticket for decomposing climate data into potential sources. Although, it must be remembered that temperature series have high enough autocorrelation to produce spurious results in any such method — its not ‘reliable’ in a strict sense.

crua

Above are the results of the first seven EOF’s from the HadCRU3gl monthly global temperature dataset, and immediately a number of possible attributions to the EOF’s pop out. Not on the y axis is the anomaly degrees associated with that EOF.

1. A broad peak – solar forcing? – 0.1 C
2. An exponential increase – ? – 0.6 C
3. A 50+ year period fluctuation – AMO? – 0.06
4. A ~20 year fluctuation – PDO? – 0.1
5. A ~10 year fluctuation – ENSO? – 0.06

These attributions to EOFs roughly match the profiles of the variables, and the approximate intensities in the literature. But what of Series 2 the exponential?

2.1 Increase in CO2?

global_carbon_emission_by_type_to_y2004

2.2 Or artifact of adjustments?

hammer-graph-3-us-temps

A neat summarizing of the climate dilemma by SSA, don’t you think?

You might want to read How the US Temperature Record is Adjusted by Jennifer Marohasy.

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0 thoughts on “SSA decomposition of HadCRU

  1. David,
    You need to read carefully. The data you have analysed is gloibal, land&sea. The adjustments you have cited were applied to US continental temperatures (USHCN), not to Hadcrut. They could not be reflected in the SSA Analysis.

    And if you might be inclined to say that maybe similar adjustments were applied, the answer is no. Hadcrut is dominated by ocean. Any adjustments there would be totally different.

    A further, redundant, objection is that if EOF2 did reflect the adjustments, it should do so quantitatively, since it would operate as a matter of arithmetic. EOF2 has a rise of about 0,6C. The adjustment to US temps is 0.6F.

    • Note that the line above is a question. And the USHCN was just an image inserted suggestively below. No such claim as you imply was made. Is not adjustment of the HadCRU data a secret? Is not the raw data unavailable, so we can’t check it? If you have a graph of the adjustment on the HadCRU data, please let me know so I can replace it.

      • David, I don’t have a graph of the adjustment on Hadcrut data. I’m not even sure that you could produce a “raw data” plot. Ocean sampling is different from fixed land stations. But if you want to suggest that EOF2 reflects some adjustment procedure, that is data that you’ll need to gather to support it.

        If USHCN was inserted “suggestively”, what claim is it suggesting?

  2. David,You need to read carefully. The data you have analysed is gloibal, land&sea. The adjustments you have cited were applied to US continental temperatures (USHCN), not to Hadcrut. They could not be reflected in the SSA Analysis.And if you might be inclined to say that maybe similar adjustments were applied, the answer is no. Hadcrut is dominated by ocean. Any adjustments there would be totally different.A further, redundant, objection is that if EOF2 did reflect the adjustments, it should do so quantitatively, since it would operate as a matter of arithmetic. EOF2 has a rise of about 0,6C. The adjustment to US temps is 0.6F.

  3. Note that the line above is a question. And the USHCN was just an image inserted suggestively below. No such claim as you imply was made. Is not adjustment of the HadCRU data a secret? Is not the raw data unavailable, so we can't check it? If you have a graph of the adjustment on the HadCRU data, please let me know so I can replace it.

  4. David, I don't have a graph of the adjustment on Hadcrut data. I'm not even sure that you could produce a “raw data” plot. Ocean sampling is different from fixed land stations. But if you want to suggest that EOF2 reflects some adjustment procedure, that is data that you'll need to gather to support it.If USHCN was inserted “suggestively”, what claim is it suggesting?

  5. David,You need to read carefully. The data you have analysed is gloibal, land&sea. The adjustments you have cited were applied to US continental temperatures (USHCN), not to Hadcrut. They could not be reflected in the SSA Analysis.And if you might be inclined to say that maybe similar adjustments were applied, the answer is no. Hadcrut is dominated by ocean. Any adjustments there would be totally different.A further, redundant, objection is that if EOF2 did reflect the adjustments, it should do so quantitatively, since it would operate as a matter of arithmetic. EOF2 has a rise of about 0,6C. The adjustment to US temps is 0.6F.

  6. Note that the line above is a question. And the USHCN was just an image inserted suggestively below. No such claim as you imply was made. Is not adjustment of the HadCRU data a secret? Is not the raw data unavailable, so we can't check it? If you have a graph of the adjustment on the HadCRU data, please let me know so I can replace it.

  7. David, I don't have a graph of the adjustment on Hadcrut data. I'm not even sure that you could produce a “raw data” plot. Ocean sampling is different from fixed land stations. But if you want to suggest that EOF2 reflects some adjustment procedure, that is data that you'll need to gather to support it.If USHCN was inserted “suggestively”, what claim is it suggesting?

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