Jan Pompe Science Project

Some time ago I had a brief discussion with Leif Svalgaard on ClimateAudit blog inspired by an exchange between Leif and David Archibald when the latter complained that Leif’s TSI reconstruction was “too flat”.

The sunspots exhibited cyclic variability in terms of the frequency of the cycles and that most thermostats work by pulse width modulation and some digital music with pulse frequency modulation. Both these work in a similar manner the thermal inertia of whatever the thermostat is controlling smooths the temperature variability and the pulse frequency modulation’s demodulator is a simple low pass filter often just a series resistor and shunt capacitor. In both these cases only the duty cycle or the frequency varies but not the amplitude. Below is a description of how this behaviour can be simulated with an electrical circuit emulator called ‘qucs’.

Any system for storing energy and releasing at a slower rate can function as a low pass filter like a fly wheel for rotational mechanical energy, capacitor or inductor properly configured an oven hot plate with a pot of food on it. I decided to test the concept so I downloaded sunspot data from the Boulder site and run the crudest integrator on it, the running average. with a 20 window and the result is here:

The result bears a resemblance if not precisely correlated to the data for the same period that can be seen on the CRU site though somewhat more muted:

nhshgl

It was suggested that I should have centered the running average but as far as I’m aware no physical integrator has a memory of future values. In any case while I was installing a new revision of an electron schematic capture and simulation program I thought I might run a simulation on Leif’s corrected TSI data through an RC low pass filter simulation the result is below.

qucs-0014-tsifilter

I got the “Quite Universal Circuit Simulator” (qucs) from here.

I obtained the source from Leif Svalgaard research page here:

I extracted a csv file from this using the using awk command

awk ‘ $0 ~ /[21][06-9]/ {if (NF == 5 ) print $3″,”$5}’ SsnTsi.txt > vfile.csv

for those without awk could probably persuade a spreadsheet program to produce one from the above file.

This just leaves out any missing data of which here are a few months worth but qucs can hold the data.

vfile.dat is the qucs data file used as input this can be obtained using

qucsconv -i vfile.txt -if csv -of qucsdata -o vfile.dat

The vfile.dat that I used is attached below.

Now I have no idea what sort of directory structure windows uses but for Mac and unix users qucs does everything in a hidden ~/.qucs directory you can either run qucs start a new project and copy the schematic by hand the important parameters will be visible on the pdf attached in the schematic.

Or you can move the compressed file into the ~/.qucs directory and unpack it and run and you will see the project in the qucs Projects window double click on “TSIfilter” then double click on TSIfilter.sch and the schematic with charts from my last run should appear ( I left it in when I compressed).

At this point you can run the simulation yourself by clicking on the gear icon or using the menu -> Simulation ->Simulate.

You can change the properties if everything in the page by right clicking on the component page (including charts) and a menu will appear allowing you to change the values and the properties and see what sort of difference it makes.

in the zip file shold be the schematic the file from Leif Svalgaards site with the sunspot and TSI data the csv file obtained from this and the vfile.dat file generated from the .csv file as well as data files from the last run before I compressed it which incidentally is not the run that produced the PDF file attached. Does it prove anything? I don’t know I don’t think it is rigorous enough but I had fun doing it and it does look like it shares a finger print with the recent temperature record and it might give some of you a feel for how a simple model can work. Have fun with it.

Qucs project file: tsifilter_prj

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0 thoughts on “Jan Pompe Science Project

  1. Hi Louis I’m curious what name this new system will give me.

    The physical meaning? Probably nothing very real as it stands but any energy storage and release system for example a fly wheel, the pressure vessel on an air compressor or an ocean can be see seen as a low pass filter for pulsating sources of energy. These things can generally be modelled by a capacitor and resistors. With circuit as shown it is a low pass filter simulates just such a storage and release system with the two capacitors there are two one with a longer time constant than the other with the charging time constant longer than than the discharge.

    The values I used are just an ad hoc set where I gradually increased it to get more filtering ( longer storage) and stopped when it started to look interesting. If for instance I wanted simulate simple storage in ocean and atmosphere of down welling SW and up welling LW I would have to make quite some changes the time constants would have to be a lot different in a way that will shift in all to the left a bit and lead to larger accumulation ( I suspect).

    I could and probably will experiment a bit more with this model then feed the signal to it via an A/D converter (after getting a new oscilloscope that will store and upload data If I’m going to experiment I might as well do it properly maybe I’ll rent it). I won’t be happy until I see if a hardware version does the same as I haven’t fired qucs in anger before I used ot get good results with spice though.

    this is Just TSI I’m working with for solar wind GCR and magnetic effects I’m going to have to add active components as there are several inverting steps and I have to get some data to feed it.

  2. Hi Louis I'm curious what name this new system will give me. The physical meaning? Probably nothing very real as it stands but any energy storage and release system for example a fly wheel, the pressure vessel on an air compressor or an ocean can be see seen as a low pass filter for pulsating sources of energy. These things can generally be modelled by a capacitor and resistors. With circuit as shown it is a low pass filter simulates just such a storage and release system with the two capacitors there are two one with a longer time constant than the other with the charging time constant longer than than the discharge. The values I used are just an ad hoc set where I gradually increased it to get more filtering ( longer storage) and stopped when it started to look interesting. If for instance I wanted simulate simple storage in ocean and atmosphere of down welling SW and up welling LW I would have to make quite some changes the time constants would have to be a lot different in a way that will shift in all to the left a bit and lead to larger accumulation ( I suspect). I could and probably will experiment a bit more with this model then feed the signal to it via an A/D converter (after getting a new oscilloscope that will store and upload data If I'm going to experiment I might as well do it properly maybe I'll rent it). I won't be happy until I see if a hardware version does the same as I haven't fired qucs in anger before I used ot get good results with spice though. this is Just TSI I'm working with for solar wind GCR and magnetic effects I'm going to have to add active components as there are several inverting steps and I have to get some data to feed it.

  3. “first thing, what does it mean physically.”

    I’d say it shows that assuming some amount of long term energy storage/release of the suns energy produces results that match what we observe.

    Physically that stored energy could be in the ocean, or in the crust, or in antarctic ice mass.

    The crust is interesting since we know that it’s by conduction with the ground/vegatiation that the atmosphere gets most of its energy.

  4. “first thing, what does it mean physically.”I'd say it shows that assuming some amount of long term energy storage/release of the suns energy produces results that match what we observe. Physically that stored energy could be in the ocean, or in the crust, or in antarctic ice mass. The crust is interesting since we know that it's by conduction with the ground/vegatiation that the atmosphere gets most of its energy.

  5. Jan.

    Windoze holds the qucs data in C:Documents and Settingsuser.qucs

    I ran the data & got the same results but have a few ideas I’d like to try before making a fool of myself.

    Dave

  6. Jan.Windoze holds the qucs data in C:Documents and Settingsuser.qucsI ran the data & got the same results but have a few ideas I'd like to try before making a fool of myself.Dave

  7. Based upon the work of Nicola Scaffeta and Bruce West, that Leif’s data shows no secular variability may not be a problem for solar-climate links-Wang et al’s reconstruction actually fit better than Lean et al’s, which had more secular variability:
    http://acrim.com/Reference%20Files/Sun%20&%20Global%20Warming_GRL_2006.pdf
    An important question, however, is whether there is a late twentieth century solar trend, as suggested by the ACRIM composite. Leif doesn’t think so, but I am not convinced by his arguments against it.

  8. Based upon the work of Nicola Scaffeta and Bruce West, that Leif's data shows no secular variability may not be a problem for solar-climate links-Wang et al's reconstruction actually fit better than Lean et al's, which had more secular variability:http://acrim.com/Reference%20Files/Sun%20&%20Gl…An important question, however, is whether there is a late twentieth century solar trend, as suggested by the ACRIM composite. Leif doesn't think so, but I am not convinced by his arguments against it.

  9. Andrew it has been a while since I looked at it but if I recall correctly Richard Willson preferred looking at the minima of TSI for the trend rather than the peaks. If you look at Leif’s TSI reconstruction the minima don’t look to me if the go to the floor late 20th century. I don’t that is sufficient on it’s own for the temperature increase the late 20th century but it’s fingerprint certainly appears to be there so correlated events like solar wind, elctromagnetic field and GCR IMHO play part as well.

    • Well, there is a more fundamental difference of opinion between the ACRIM team and other people looking at TSI. During the solar ~max~ of solar cycle 22, ACRIM claims TSI rose-others, PMOD for example claims a slight decline occured over this period.

      • Hi Andrew,

        If i recall correctly Richard Willkins thought the PMPOD people took liberties with the data in order to correlate with Judith Lean’s proxy model. Which if true strikes as doing things the wrong way around, I can’t remember the fine detail of the discussion but broadly that the PMOD people were claiming that the temperature should have been declining the last decade or so while Richard Willkin’s was that there was a slight incline.

        Reagrdless of whether either point of view wrt with respect to TSI what this little simulation shows is that with largish storage the pulse trains variations are enough to produce the sort of variations that we have seen in the global temperature even if it isn’t precisely correlated or a large enough amplitue.

        Here you can see the effect with amplitude information removed and a running average with 20 year window.

  10. Andrew it has been a while since I looked at it but if I recall correctly Richard Willson preferred looking at the minima of TSI for the trend rather than the peaks. If you look at Leif's TSI reconstruction the minima don't look to me if the go to the floor late 20th century. I don't that is sufficient on it's own for the temperature increase the late 20th century but it's fingerprint certainly appears to be there so correlated events like solar wind, elctromagnetic field and GCR IMHO play part as well.

  11. Thanks for the feedback Dave.

    I’m going to write the qucs people telling them that making the working directory a hidden file is a right royal pain. I’m fine with start up files being in a hidden directory but not the working ones.

  12. Thanks for the feedback Dave.I'm going to write the qucs people telling them that making the working directory a hidden file is a right royal pain. I'm fine with start up files being in a hidden directory but not the working ones.

  13. Well, there is a more fundamental difference of opinion between the ACRIM team and other people looking at TSI. During the solar ~max~ of solar cycle 22, ACRIM claims TSI rose-others, PMOD for example claims a slight decline occured over this period.

  14. Hi Andrew, If i recall correctly Richard Willkins thought the PMPOD people took liberties with the data in order to correlate with Judith Lean's proxy model. Which if true strikes as doing things the wrong way around, I can't remember the fine detail of the discussion but broadly that the PMOD people were claiming that the temperature should have been declining the last decade or so while Richard Willkin's was that there was a slight incline. Reagrdless of whether either point of view wrt with respect to TSI what this little simulation shows is that with largish storage the pulse trains variations are enough to produce the sort of variations that we have seen in the global temperature even if it isn't precisely correlated or a large enough amplitue.Here you can see the effect with amplitude information removed and a running average with 20 year window.

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