Causes of Global Warming

Here is a graph that suggests something intriguing about climate dynamics — global temperature from 1979-2009 from UAH satellite records for land, southern hemisphere ocean, and globe, each fit with a 3rd order polynomial. Also plotted is the difference between SH Ocean and Global temperatures, and the difference between SH Ocean and Land temperatures. Notice that the 3rd order polynomial of the differences is almost dead straight! The Ocean-Land difference tends to drop a bit in the last 5 years.

3polyglobals

This shows that despite the ups and downs of temperature, the divergence between global and ocean temperatures has been almost linear over 30 years.

Cosmic Ray Flux effects are postulated to be much stronger over clear air with insufficient condensation nuclei. Hence, oceans and particularly the southern hemisphere oceans could be most sensitive to variations in CRF.

There is evidence from various measures of CRF, such as the Be10 concentration in ice cores, that the CRF has been increasing. If that is the case, could the land-ocean divergence be attributed to CRF? Another plausible explanation is that land temperatures have increased due to urban heat effect (UHI) during that time, due to placement of thermometers in burgeoning urban areas.

Also of note is the sigmoidal curve, present even with higher order polynomials. Could also be attributed to the the influence of the solar activity magnetic cycle of approximately 22 years, over which the polarity of the Sun’s magnetic dipole reverses?

Making too much of short time periods is not advisable when talking about climate which changes over longer periods. Still it is fascinating to see how easily patterns emerge in support of solar modulated CRF based climate changes.

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24 thoughts on “Causes of Global Warming

  1. “Another plausible explanation is that land temperatures have increased due to urban heat effect (UHI) during that time, due to placement of thermometers in burgeoning urban areas.”

    But this wouldn’t apply to MSU data, only surface station records, so the original explanation fits better. 🙂

  2. “Another plausible explanation is that land temperatures have increased due to urban heat effect (UHI) during that time, due to placement of thermometers in burgeoning urban areas.”

    But this wouldn’t apply to MSU data, only surface station records, so the original explanation fits better. 🙂

  3. Yes, it makes sense to me that increased CRF acting primarily on the oceans would show as an increased differential in temperature between the oceans and land, or oceans global. This is the sort of thing Geoff Sherrington is interested in.

  4. Yes, it makes sense to me that increased CRF acting primarily on the oceans would show as an increased differential in temperature between the oceans and land, or oceans global. This is the sort of thing Geoff Sherrington is interested in.

  5. More specifically, I have looked at annual temp data for 40 years from 17 rural Australian stations incl 2 islands. In summary, the seaside stations have shown very little temp change in 40 years. The inland sites have shown a strong warming trend, stronger mostly than the global trend. This has to be a metastable arrangement – the seaside can’t be forever out of kilter with the inland. The cause I favour at present is instrumental error, but I have little evidence. I have read a little on the solar modulated CRF work and it is appealing, but I’m not very deep into it and it does not explain away my observations.

    David’s opening graph is interesting for several reasons, one I’ll mention. The 1998 peak over land is prominent in USA data, but I’ve seldom seen it in many other places, especially Southern hemisphere. Here’s a URL for Davis Antarctic base, and another for Macquarie Island and another for Tennant Creek NT.

    Davis Antarctica

    http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/ii14/sherro_2008/Macquariegraph.jpg?t=1238839183

    http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/ii14/sherro_2008/Tennantgraphlongraw.jpg?t=1238839607

    Not much sign of the 1998 jump for these three classes of site.

    Another observation is that some global event seems to have led to cooling in about 1974-5. Someone might know what it is. It shows up on Tennant. Shame those satellites were not in the sky before then. Or at a time to settle whether the MWP was localised or global.

  6. More specifically, I have looked at annual temp data for 40 years from 17 rural Australian stations incl 2 islands. In summary, the seaside stations have shown very little temp change in 40 years. The inland sites have shown a strong warming trend, stronger mostly than the global trend. This has to be a metastable arrangement – the seaside can’t be forever out of kilter with the inland. The cause I favour at present is instrumental error, but I have little evidence. I have read a little on the solar modulated CRF work and it is appealing, but I’m not very deep into it and it does not explain away my observations.

    David’s opening graph is interesting for several reasons, one I’ll mention. The 1998 peak over land is prominent in USA data, but I’ve seldom seen it in many other places, especially Southern hemisphere. Here’s a URL for Davis Antarctic base, and another for Macquarie Island and another for Tennant Creek NT.

    Davis Antarctica

    http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/ii14/sherro_2008/Macquariegraph.jpg?t=1238839183

    http://i260.photobucket.com/albums/ii14/sherro_2008/Tennantgraphlongraw.jpg?t=1238839607

    Not much sign of the 1998 jump for these three classes of site.

    Another observation is that some global event seems to have led to cooling in about 1974-5. Someone might know what it is. It shows up on Tennant. Shame those satellites were not in the sky before then. Or at a time to settle whether the MWP was localised or global.

  7. Geoff Sherrington-“Another observation is that some global event seems to have led to cooling in about 1974-5.”

    This is just before the “Great Pacific Climate Shift” when PDO switched to positive and El Nino’s began to dominate. Possibly related?

  8. Geoff Sherrington-“Another observation is that some global event seems to have led to cooling in about 1974-5.”

    This is just before the “Great Pacific Climate Shift” when PDO switched to positive and El Nino’s began to dominate. Possibly related?

    • A new online book by Pierrehumbert
      http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~rtp1/ClimateBook/ClimateVol1.pdf

      After his criticism of G&T for not being published in a “peer reviewed” journal (it is now), he hasn’t much to stand on. Just browsing through the global warming section it is easy to spot downright spurious claims.

      I wonder if FM would be interested in poring over this latest rendition of “settled science” by the alarmist extraordinaire Pierrehumbert.

  9. A new online book by Pierrehumberthttp://geosci.uchicago.edu/~rtp1/ClimateBook/Cl…After his criticism of G&T for not being published in a “peer reviewed” journal (it is now), he hasn't much to stand on. Just browsing through the global warming section it is easy to spot downright spurious claims. I wonder if FM would be interested in poring over this latest rendition of “settled science” by the alarmist extraordinaire Pierrehumbert.

  10. A new online book by Pierrehumberthttp://geosci.uchicago.edu/~rtp1/ClimateBook/Cl…After his criticism of G&T for not being published in a “peer reviewed” journal (it is now), he hasn't much to stand on. Just browsing through the global warming section it is easy to spot downright spurious claims. I wonder if FM would be interested in poring over this latest rendition of “settled science” by the alarmist extraordinaire Pierrehumbert.

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