January 2009 global temperature from RSS

RSS global temperature in the lower atmosphere increased 0.148C from the previous month. The two early leaders in the ‘Guess the monthly global temperatures’ competition are still CoRev and Jan Pompe:

The guesses were very biased, with an extraordinary 95.7% guessing incorrectly. That’s a lot worst than random choices would do.

What is the point of this competition? Well, I think there is a big difference between talking about prediction, and actually doing it. Real tests of skill provide an opportunity to observe your motivations, biases and reactions.

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