December 2008 Global Temperature Falls

Latest results from RSS for global temperature in the lower atmosphere show a decline in December 2008 to 0.174 from 0.216 in the previous month. Two early leaders in the ‘Guess the monthly global temperatures’ competition have emerged: CoRev and Jan Pompe. Below are the questions so-far, and all the punters with at least one correct prediction of the direction of monthly global temperature.

What is the point of this competition? Well, I think there is a big difference between talking about prediction, and actually doing it. Real tests of skill provide an opportunity to observe your motivations, biases and reactions. I notice that the total number of votes dropped from November to December. Could this be due to the realization that expectation for monthly global temperature direction is based more on intuitive certitude (bias) than science?

In the unlikely case the somebody does display real skill at prediction, how would they do it? My guess is that skill would be achieved by some version of ‘front-running’, using information not widely available to other participants. In any event, its a prediction experiment.

Voting is open for January temperatures. You can place your vote below.

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0 thoughts on “December 2008 Global Temperature Falls

  1. Agreed that in conventional pursuits like horse races, predictive outcomes are helped by insider knowledge. But that means that the skill is not purely predictive, it is prediction plus assistance. I think of the Hunt bros trying to buy up all the silver in the world so they could not just predict the price, but set it. That’s really good insider knowledge.

    In the pure sense, all preditions are a guess. They are not science, though they might be dressed up as such.

    On the theme of future climate, we canot predict it 100% in the pure sense. Just when we think we have it tied up, wham comes an asteroid and all bets are off.

  2. Agreed that in conventional pursuits like horse races, predictive outcomes are helped by insider knowledge. But that means that the skill is not purely predictive, it is prediction plus assistance. I think of the Hunt bros trying to buy up all the silver in the world so they could not just predict the price, but set it. That’s really good insider knowledge.

    In the pure sense, all preditions are a guess. They are not science, though they might be dressed up as such.

    On the theme of future climate, we canot predict it 100% in the pure sense. Just when we think we have it tied up, wham comes an asteroid and all bets are off.

  3. Geoff, Thats right the aim of this series is to highlight the nuances of prediction, and especially how to appear you are predicting, when there are many ways to slide around it. Its not always ‘pure’, and its important to recognize it and not be fooled. I have a post in the works along the lines of the Hunt bros as a strategy, only about the Pantone system, ‘predicting’ colors for the next season of the apparel industry, but actually creating the demand.

  4. Geoff, Thats right the aim of this series is to highlight the nuances of prediction, and especially how to appear you are predicting, when there are many ways to slide around it. Its not always ‘pure’, and its important to recognize it and not be fooled. I have a post in the works along the lines of the Hunt bros as a strategy, only about the Pantone system, ‘predicting’ colors for the next season of the apparel industry, but actually creating the demand.

  5. Ummm. I like female nightware in Pantone Pastel Uncoated 9280U. Now you have some insider knowledge to help your prediction.

  6. Ummm. I like female nightware in Pantone Pastel Uncoated 9280U. Now you have some insider knowledge to help your prediction.

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