Latest results from RSS for global temperature in the lower atmosphere show a decline in December 2008 to 0.174 from 0.216 in the previous month. Two early leaders in the ‘Guess the monthly global temperatures’ competition have emerged: CoRev and Jan Pompe. Below are the questions so-far, and all the punters with at least one correct prediction of the direction of monthly global temperature.
What is the point of this competition? Well, I think there is a big difference between talking about prediction, and actually doing it. Real tests of skill provide an opportunity to observe your motivations, biases and reactions. I notice that the total number of votes dropped from November to December. Could this be due to the realization that expectation for monthly global temperature direction is based more on intuitive certitude (bias) than science?
In the unlikely case the somebody does display real skill at prediction, how would they do it? My guess is that skill would be achieved by some version of ‘front-running’, using information not widely available to other participants. In any event, its a prediction experiment.
Voting is open for January temperatures. You can place your vote below.