Submission 1: Australian Meteorological Magazine (AMM)

The venue for more formal debate on controversial topics is the scientific journals. As part of my trek into the desert of drought predictions in Australia, I submitted a review of the Drought Exceptional Circumstances report (abstract below) two days ago to the Australian Meteorological Magazine. To date I have not received an acknowledgement of its receipt.

The reasons I selected the AMM: it publishes all its papers on the web, has emphasis on the meteorology of the Australian region and the southern hemisphere, and would have a readership familiar with the DECR.

I am hoping at some point to engage climate scientists in the issues that have been raised about the interpretation of drought data in the DECR report. For example, Ferenc Miskolczi has very graciously engaged a number of people here who were interested in understanding his theory of semi-transparent atmosphere in more detail.

I would like to know what validation was used to justify the use of climate models for modelling drought, and how the conclusion that droughts are likely to increase in frequency and severity can be reconciled with the data, which shows drought frequency and severity declining, can be justified.

So far, no luck. I submitted a manuscript with the following abstract to the AMM two days ago. So far I have not even received acknowledgement of its receipt.

Review of projections of frequency and severity of exceptionally low rainfall in the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report
David R.B. Stockwell
September 20, 2008

Abstract

The 2008 Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR) makes a number of bold claims in its assessment of likely changes in the frequency and severity of severe rainfall deficiencies over the next 20-30 years. This review presents an analysis which brings into question whether these claims can be sustained by the data. Taking into account the poor performance of climate models, as evidenced by simulations of area of exceptionally low rainfall trending in the opposite direction to observations, a more valid interpretation of the results would be for drought frequency and severity in Australia to remain largely unchanged in the future, with no expectation of a change in the climatological basis for
EC declarations.

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