Below is the reply received from Andrew Ash, Director of the Climate Adaptation Flagship, to my letter to CSIRO here, concerning the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report (DECR). There are a number of unsubstantiated statements here (as in the DECR), to which I reply in another letter. Is the reliance on climate models with no predictive value in the DECR so narrow as not to affect the conclusions? Note also the desire to ‘move on’.
Tue, Sep 9, 2008 at 1:32 PM
subject Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report
Dear Dr Stockwell,
Your letter regarding the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report to Dr Greg Ayers and Geoff Love has been passed to us.
We will not be withdrawing this report; your critique concerns only a narrow component of the report, and the overall conclusions of the report to our client flow from many lines of evidence.
Furthermore, our initial analysis of your critique suggests it suffers deficiencies even with regard to this narrow component. Our understanding is that your report on this is still in draft form on your website, but once we have a final version (perhaps the attached dated September 3?) we will of course check this assessment.
Meanwhile, thanks for your continued attention to our work; as you know we value constructive criticism as it often helps to tighten up that science, which is vital in issues which matter so much to the future of our planet. Your analysis has helped show that the science is robust and improving, which strengthens the case for acting on climate change. The authors are submitting a more technical version of the report to a scientific journal, which will include more detail on model evaluation.
Andrew Ash (Director, CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship)
Gary Foley (Acting Director, Australian Bureau of Meteorology)