More Evidence of Climate Stabilization

Another index of global warming has rolled over – sea level. It has been reported recently that temperatures of the ocean surface have declined in the last four years. Not only that, sea levels have stopped rising in the last two years, as the graph below shows. This shows the global mean sea level level rise by satellite altimeter, with a clear fall in sea level dating to early 2006.

sea_level.png

Fig. Mean sea level stabilizing.

To the extent that sea level integrates a number of temperature dependent phenomena: ice extent – above average, sea temperature through thermal expansion and melting ice sheets, this reflects a change in the warming trend in many areas. The downturn at present is similar in magnitude to the downturn when temperature cooled after the large 1998 el Nino. Interestingly this downturn precedes the large surface air temperature drops until the first two months (Jan Feb ) of 2008.

<img src="
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/103/292993977_38671994f5.jpg?v=0"

Below is a list of significant evidence of climate stabilizations reported to date.

Stratosphere temperature stabilizes

Global surface temperature stabilizes

Ocean temperatures show no warming

Sea level falling

Global temperatures have been on a long bull run, strongly correlated with the DOW Jones stockmarket index. Are we nearing the end of the great bull market in temperatures? Or are the current data on declining temperatures a ‘bear-trap’?

Most climate commentators believe that temperatures will quickly rebound. What is the mind set behind this view/prediction? To believe that, one would have to believe that the present fall is a departure from an equilibrium value, and the temperature will ‘snap back’. However, is it not also possible that the last five years saw increasingly disequilibrium, and the current cooling is due to temperatures ‘snapping back’ to lower levels? I am not committed either way. But it is at least theoretically and empirically possible that the global warming models are all wrong, and CO2 has not been responsible for recent warming.

My guess is that if the current trend continues, the “temporary fluctuation”, and “global warming caused the cooling” chatter will decline, and murmuring of an unexplained factor that may have been overlooked, that more research is needed, the climate system is theory is poorly understood, will increase. That would put them in agreement with me.

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0 thoughts on “More Evidence of Climate Stabilization

  1. That last paragraph: Of course. 🙂

    I saw that flattish spot in the sea level rise in the graphic in Roger Pielke’s paper. I immediately went to the AR4 to see if I could find any concrete predictions, but they must have just decided that predicting sea level rise is impossible. (I found predictions for thermal expansion rates but not the overall rise.)

  2. That last paragraph: Of course. 🙂

    I saw that flattish spot in the sea level rise in the graphic in Roger Pielke’s paper. I immediately went to the AR4 to see if I could find any concrete predictions, but they must have just decided that predicting sea level rise is impossible. (I found predictions for thermal expansion rates but not the overall rise.)

  3. Lucia, I read the sea height chapter recently too. I thought it was rather measured in their assessment of the data and knowledge. They have an ongoing issue (since at least TAR 2001) with the measured rises exceeding the expected rise calculated from the components, which they attribute largely to instrument bias. This is a perspective that Rahmstorf etal fail to mention, preferring to spin it as ‘contributions rapidly increasing’. Pielke had a discussion about what constituted a contribution or not. Its another big talking point. But irrespective of that, sea levels are actually DECLINING, as I believe the satellite data.

  4. Lucia, I read the sea height chapter recently too. I thought it was rather measured in their assessment of the data and knowledge. They have an ongoing issue (since at least TAR 2001) with the measured rises exceeding the expected rise calculated from the components, which they attribute largely to instrument bias. This is a perspective that Rahmstorf etal fail to mention, preferring to spin it as ‘contributions rapidly increasing’. Pielke had a discussion about what constituted a contribution or not. Its another big talking point. But irrespective of that, sea levels are actually DECLINING, as I believe the satellite data.

  5. aviso.oceanobs.com – Last month the sea level chart showed 5 months down, Now it has been revised up. Instrument correction or seasonal adjustments ?

    Would be informative if aviso also charted the unadjusted.

  6. aviso.oceanobs.com – Last month the sea level chart showed 5 months down, Now it has been revised up. Instrument correction or seasonal adjustments ?

    Would be informative if aviso also charted the unadjusted.

  7. You are probably aware of the misleading way in which CSIRO reported rising sea levels around Australia some time ago, as pointed out by John Daly. I made a word file of the relevant links and data which makes it very evident that CSIRO is prepared to compromise its reputation in its public presentation of such data. If you send me an e:mail, I will send you my file.

    In brief though, CSIRO report 25 year changes in sea level at 28 stations around Australia. Then they take a simple average to present the average rise in Australian sea level over that period. Only problem is that the data is heavily influenced by three outliers – Port Adelaide Inner, Port Adelaide Outer (yes really) and Fremantle. Googling will give you data from other CSIRO departments that show that Adelaide and Fremantle are subject to local land subsidence issues which give a misleading impression of sea level rise.

  8. You are probably aware of the misleading way in which CSIRO reported rising sea levels around Australia some time ago, as pointed out by John Daly. I made a word file of the relevant links and data which makes it very evident that CSIRO is prepared to compromise its reputation in its public presentation of such data. If you send me an e:mail, I will send you my file.

    In brief though, CSIRO report 25 year changes in sea level at 28 stations around Australia. Then they take a simple average to present the average rise in Australian sea level over that period. Only problem is that the data is heavily influenced by three outliers – Port Adelaide Inner, Port Adelaide Outer (yes really) and Fremantle. Googling will give you data from other CSIRO departments that show that Adelaide and Fremantle are subject to local land subsidence issues which give a misleading impression of sea level rise.

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