The following is a new version of the About Page. Gradually getting this website organized the way I want it.
I have always been fascinated with prediction.
As an undergraduate I made stock predictors on the first PCs and lost money in 1987.
Studied maths, statistics and started a PhD in ecological prediction.
Developed betting systems and lost money.
Studied algorithms for predicting species distributions and developed GARP which other people used for cool things like finding new species of chameleon in Madagascar.
Developed automated trading systems for FOREX in 2002 and lost money.
So I know a few things about prediction, and more about how not to do prediction. In addition, in this blog I hope to pass on a few, and help people to predict better. Like predicting the risk to poultry from Bird Flu using GIS spatial analysis. Or monitoring the health of different types of hydrocoral polyps on reefs. The possibilities are endless.